Lecture 20

The following data come from Durbin and Watson's 1951 Biometrika article.

Raw Data:

Year	Log_Consumption	Log_Real_Income	Log_Relative_Price
1870	1.9565	1.7669	1.9176
1871	1.9794	1.7766	1.9059
1872	2.0120	1.7764	1.8798
1873	2.0449	1.7942	1.8727
1874	2.0561	1.8156	1.8984
1875	2.0678	1.8083	1.9137
1876	2.0561	1.8083	1.9176
1877	2.0428	1.8067	1.9176
1878	2.0290	1.8166	1.9420
1879	1.9980	1.8041	1.9547
1880	1.9884	1.8053	1.9379
1881	1.9835	1.8242	1.9462
1882	1.9773	1.8395	1.9504
1883	1.9748	1.8464	1.9504
1884	1.9629	1.8492	1.9723
1885	1.9396	1.8668	2.0000
1886	1.9309	1.8783	2.0097
1887	1.9271	1.8914	2.0146
1888	1.9239	1.9166	2.0146
1889	1.9414	1.9363	2.0097
1890	1.9685	1.9548	2.0097
1891	1.9727	1.9453	2.0097
1892	1.9736	1.9292	2.0048
1893	1.9499	1.9209	2.0097
1894	1.9432	1.9510	2.0296
1895	1.9569	1.9776	2.0399
1896	1.9647	1.9814	2.0399
1897	1.9710	1.9819	2.0296
1898	1.9719	1.9828	2.0146
1899	1.9956	2.0076	2.0245
1900	2.0000	2.0000	2.0000
1901	1.9904	1.9939	2.0048
1902	1.9752	1.9933	2.0048
1903	1.9494	1.9797	2.0000
1904	1.9332	1.9772	1.9952
1905	1.9139	1.9924	1.9952
1906	1.9091	2.0117	1.9905
1907	1.9139	2.0204	1.9813
1908	1.8886	2.0018	1.9905
1909	1.7945	2.0038	1.9859
1910	1.7644	2.0099	2.0518
1911	1.7817	2.0174	2.0474
1912	1.7784	2.0279	2.0341
1913	1.7945	2.0359	2.0255
1914	1.7888	2.0216	2.0341
1915	1.8751	1.9896	1.9445
1916	1.7853	1.9843	1.9939
1917	1.6075	1.9764	2.2082
1918	1.5185	1.9965	2.2700
1919	1.6513	2.0652	2.2430
1920	1.6247	2.0369	2.2567
1921	1.5391	1.9723	2.2988
1922	1.4922	1.9797	2.3723
1923	1.4606	2.0136	2.4105
1924	1.4551	2.0165	2.4081
1925	1.4425	2.0213	2.4081
1926	1.4023	2.0206	2.4367
1927	1.3991	2.0563	2.4284
1928	1.3798	2.0579	2.4310
1929	1.3782	2.0649	2.4363
1930	1.3366	2.0582	2.4552
1931	1.3026	2.0517	2.4838
1932	1.2592	2.0491	2.4958
1933	1.2635	2.0766	2.5048
1934	1.2549	2.0890	2.5017
1935	1.2527	2.1059	2.4958
1936	1.2763	2.1205	2.4838
1937	1.2906	2.1205	2.4636
1938	1.2721	1.1182	2.4580